The approaching 2023 Presidential Election promises to be like none other in the nation’s annals. And the die is already cast as the pretenders and contenders have been already defined. It is a three-horse race, with Rabiu Kwankwaso already discounting himself as a possible winner if he does not pair up with Peter Obi as his running mate.
It is therefore a three-horse race. The remaining 15 political parties are just vying for honours and personal records. Barring any strange odds, the race is between Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate Atiku Abubakar and his running mate Ifeanyi Okowa, All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate Ahmed Bola Tinubu and his yet-to-be-determined running mate; and the Labour Party and its candidate Peter Obi together with his yet to be determined running. The three are truly worthy opponents and barring all odds, one of them will become president Buhari’s successor.
One thing the three front-line runners have in common is their cosmopolitan character and dispositions. No one can be said to be an ethnic champion or an irredentist, and have come with appeals that cut across regions and primordial cleavages. They are all pan-Nigerian. Each of the three, therefore, stands a good chance of winning and what each does in the next six months will make or unmake.
Given this scenario, one is persuaded to take a critical look at the political behaviour of Ndigbo vis-à-vis their counterparts in other regions of the country. This has become necessary given what the Igbo ethnic group has gone through in the last 7 years, since being shut out completely by the APC-led federal government. Many see it as a direct consequence of having all their eggs in one basket for which President Muhammadu Buhari labelled them ‘5% voters’ who will not be treated equally with ‘97% voters'.
It is also true that what happened in the referenced instance has to do with Buhari himself who the Igbos perceive as a religious fundamentalist in whose hands they are not prepared to entrust their future and progress. Regrettably, the President made no effort to prove them wrong. Instead, he has gone farther in confirming their fears by shutting them out of the nation’s security architecture and critical appointments.
Yes, the South-east voted against Buhari in 2003, 2007, 211, 2015 and in 2019 in mutual distrust. The evidence showing that their action on Buhari is neither ethnic nor religious is seen in the fact that the same Ndigbo voted for MKO Abiola in 1993; for Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 and 2003; for Shehu Musa Yar’Adua in 2007 even when Emeka Ojukwu was in the race the same year and in the previous presidential election. They also voted for Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 and supported him till the end.
The voting pattern of Ndigbo is evidently not driven by ethnicity and religion, but they tend to deliver their votes en-bulk to a single party based on the candidate fielded. This trend has been regarded as Ndigbo carrying all eggs in one basket. Their principled stand on political issues is unassailable and most times unyielding and inflexible.
Howver, in politics, flexibility without compromising integrity is a virtue. The ethnic group, perhaps the largest in Nigeria when their populations in other regions are added, Ndigbo should not be herded in one direction on election day. They should fan out to major political parties that have strong chances of winning the presidential election to be counted by the winning party when the booties are shared.
Single-mindedness boomerangs in politics as presently seen in the fate of Ndigbo for their wholesome support for Dr Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP in 2011 and 2015. This undivided loyalty and support have been without reciprocation. Even Jonathan could not as much as lend a voice to the aspiration of the South-east for a Nigerian President of their extraction.
The former president instead, angled to return to power at their expense. More instructively, the PDP that has always relied on the South-east for victory ( for there is no single presidential election the PDP would have won if the party’s votes from the South-east were discounted) turned round to say the party wasn’t likely to win with a flag-bearer from the South-east zone and consequently threw open its presidential ticket. Predictably, the North clinched the PDP ticket, using their numerical advantage and by queuing behind Atiku Abubakar.
What prompted this intervention is the badgering of some Igbos who dare express their preferences for other political parties and aspirants other than the Labour party and Peter Obi who is flying its flag. They are called unprintable names in attempts to whip them into line. These attacks are wrong since Ndigbo have not – and in their enlightened self-interest, should not - adopt any political party or candidate for that matter, as their sole political party or candidate. It will be yet another strategic blunder if they do. The choice of support must be left to individuals while Igbo strategic interest is also articulated and canvassed in a civilised manner.
Recall that in the 2019 presidential election, Ohanaeze Ndigbo unwittingly adopted Atiku Abubakar/Peter Obi and their party, the PDP. That historic adoption by the apex umbrella body of the Igbo race was a blunder that led to the fractionalization of the august body, which persists till today.
Ndigbo should be left free to ‘Atiku-culate’ if they want; be ‘Obi-dient’ if they want, or ‘Tinubu-lized’ if they wish to. Insulting some Igbos for their choices and subjecting them to cyber-bullying is wrong. Those doing this because of Peter Obi should know he is not an ethnic project and anybody making him into one is doing him a disservice even.
The younger ones should be taught the beauty of Nigerian politics in years gone by. For example, In the First Republic, Grace Ikoku of Action Group, a political party led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo stood election against his own father, Alvan Ikoku of NCNC, another party led by Nnamdi Azikiwe. The son defeated the father. That is democracy at its best!
In the South-west, it is easy to find husbands and wives who belong to different political parties with their marriages intact. In the First Republic also, Ndigbo twice voted Umaru Altine, a Fulani man from Kano, as the Mayor of Enugu.
So, let us permit 2023 to redefine who Ndigbo are. Ndigbo are democrats and republicans. Let freedom, which defines the Igbo social life and culture as well as democracy prevail.
Who shall win shall win; what will be, will be.
• Dr Law Mefor is a Senior Fellow of The Abuja School of Social and Political Thought; Tel.: +234- 905 642 4375 E-mail: drlawmefor@gmail.com; follow me on twitter:@DrLawMefor.
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